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妊娠期急性脂肪肝患者预后相关危险因素分析及预测模型建立

Prognostic value of different factors to predict death of acute fatty liver of pregnancy cases

  • 摘要: 目的: 探讨妊娠期急性脂肪肝(AFLP)患者预后相关的危险因素,并建立预测模型。方法: 回顾性分析93例中南大学湘雅医院和湘雅二医院收治的AFLP患者,通过单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析死亡预测因素,并建立预测模型,联合比值比及受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)比较不同因子的预测价值。结果: 单因素分析显示国际标准化比值(INR)、总胆红素(TBIL)、血肌酐(Scr)、血小板计数(PLT)以及出现肝性脑病是AFLP患者病死的独立危险因素。多因素分析联合各项危险因素,以肝性脑病和PLT建立AFLP预后预测模型, 其预测效能为87.0%,灵敏度为81.8%, 特异度为76.8%。结论: TBIL、INR、Scr增加,PLT减少及出现严重肝性脑病是AFLP患者死亡的独立危险因素; 建立的AFLP预后预测模型具有较高的预测效能。

     

    Abstract: Objective: Our aim was to explore and evaluate factors that predict mortality in acute fatty liver of pregnancy (AFLP) patients and built a effective predictive model. Methods: This retrospective study included 93 AFLP patients admitted to Xiangya Hospital and the second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Hunan, China. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify predictors of mortality and built predictive model, while odds ratios (OR) and ROC curves were used to evaluate the importance of the risk factors. Results: The international normalized ratio (INR), total bilirubin, creatinine, platelet count, and hepatic encephalopathy were independently related to poor outcomes. The area under ROC curve of the model based on platelet count, and hepatic encephalopathy was 87.0%,with 81.8% sensitivity and 76.8% specificity. Conclusions: Elevated total bilirubin, INR, creatinine, low platelet counts, hepatic encephalopathy are independent significant variables that predict the mortality of AFLP patients. The predictive accuracy of the model for AFLP was 87.0%.

     

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