Objective To investigate the effect of different timing of endoscopic intervention on the short-term prognosis of patients with cirrhosis combined with esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding (EGVB), as well as to analyze the independent related factors affecting 6-week mortality of patients with EGVB and to construct a prediction model.

Methods The patients with EGVB admitted to Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University for emergency endoscopic intervention from June 2021 to December 2023 were consecutively included. According to the timing of endoscopic intervention, they were categorized into the urgent endoscopy group (within 6 hours after the consultation, n＝94) and the early endoscopy group (6-24 hours after the consultation, n＝76). All the enrolled patients underwent a 6-week postoperative follow-up. The propensity score matching (PSM) was used as 1∶1, and baseline characteristics before and after PSM, operation related information, short-term prognosis, etc. after PSM between the two groups were compared. The binary logistic regression was used to analyze the factors influencing the 6-week mortality of patients with EGVB. A nomogram model based on the independent related factors were constructed, and ROC, calibration, and decision curves were used to verify the prognostic value of the model.

Results There were significant differences in the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, total bilirubin level, propotions of patients with systolic blood pressure < 90 mmHg, diabetes mellitus or initial bleeding event between the two groups (P < 0.05). After PSM, a total of 106 patients met the criteria. There was no significant difference in baseline date, operation related information, complications after operation, and 6-week mortality rate after operation between the two groups with 53 patients in each group after PSM. Blood product consumption was significantly higher in the urgent endoscopy group than that in the early endoscopy group (P＝0.046). The binary logistic regression analysis results showed that initial bleeding, higher Charson comorbidity index (CCI) score, active bleeding and longer duration of surgery were independent related factors for 6-week mortality after operation in patients with EGVB (P < 0.05), whereas timing of endoscopic intervention was not a related factor for 6-week mortality. A nomogram model was constructed and AUC of the model was 0.790, with higher accuracy and utility.

Conclusions The association of endoscopic intervention timing with 6-week mortality after operation in patients with EGVB is not significant obvious; the prognostic value of the model basing on initial bleeding, CCI score, active bleeding and surgery duration is higher for 6-week mortality after operation in patients with EGVB.